Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.638563 3.615349 5.008430 7.213156 1.075995e+01 1.652412e+01 27.262785
2025-03-02 1.545397 2.407686 3.869139 6.724824 1.272519e+01 2.639974e+01 66.864911
2025-03-09 1.102478 1.918502 3.532644 7.399940 1.820371e+01 5.536443e+01 275.581896
2025-03-16 0.808297 1.540688 3.193621 7.968102 2.577607e+01 1.256739e+02 1972.413338
2025-03-23 0.626402 1.296272 3.006070 8.959087 3.957808e+01 3.733509e+02 114003.066680
2025-03-30 0.492796 1.093816 2.803228 9.896281 6.109007e+01 1.455020e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.372622 0.867485 2.385433 9.554330 7.789710e+01 5.307644e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.282868 0.682316 1.979791 8.767204 9.106269e+01 2.251708e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.234727 0.592793 1.847074 9.400907 1.416268e+02 1.603031e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 0.204530 0.543071 1.833290 11.007879 2.759561e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.181296 0.505078 1.845677 13.183716 6.265462e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.156923 0.452822 1.756270 14.397865 1.262478e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.130085 0.383744 1.546078 13.889687 1.962749e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.106997 0.320030 1.320884 12.595099 2.524370e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.094558 0.291549 1.269904 13.892129 7.305802e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.083576 0.264483 1.207459 14.972062 2.545070e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.075451 0.245744 1.182915 17.000781 2.368182e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.068136 0.227572 1.148354 18.941184 1.767790e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.059491 0.200736 1.032726 18.056712 6.233262e+09 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.051579 0.174783 0.906546 16.249072 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.047084 0.162576 0.874246 17.540629 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.044205 0.156666 0.886472 20.999393 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.041828 0.152257 0.908622 25.855777 NaN NaN NaN